Why Do You Think WDW's Attendance Has Been Down This Summer

I did notice lines were relativity doable without FP a couple weeks ago. Of course the big ticket rides still had excessive waits 7DMT, Space Mtn, Peter Pan. Most other rides were all well under 60 min.

Not real sure why the drop. Gators? Zika? HEAT?

World economics I think play a part.

My thought as well. As Disney needs to take a step back on the cost to families and just adults (in my case). Don't get me wrong I understand everything these days are expensive and like my trip next December I had to take a hard look at the cost of staying in the bubble. So I decided I would rather stay off property and still go to Disney. I save for 2 years and that has always been enough to be in the bubble in the past but not now.

I think there are a ton of contributing factors:

1. Park construction. I think many families in the know are delaying trips until some of the larger projects are completed because they have the perception that it's not a good use of their vacation budget to visit WDW while there's nearly constant construction in every park and half of the resorts. Maybe they are taking the opportunity to check out some other destinations. I know after October, we intend to be done for quite some time. We want to do an Alaskan cruise, Universal, and an Adventures by Disney trip before we go back to WDW again. The only thing that we might do is to do a long weekend and do a Christmas party and the Backstage Magic tour that doesn't require a park ticket.

2. Price increases. I still think that WDW is a great value versus many other destinations; HOWEVER, larger families have a much different pricing experience than we have. Things like airline tickets (or gas for the car), food cost, and attraction tickets play a larger role in which destination is the most affordable. For us, hotel cost is a much bigger driving factor because we have fewer "per person" items to buy in total. Disney hotels are somewhat expensive relative to other Lake Buena Vista area hotels even when you factor in Magical Express, no resort fees, free parking, etc., but they are very competitive with other places where we might like to travel--Boston, LA, San Francisco, etc. While Disney is still affordable for us as a couple (especially with DVC and AP factored into the cost equation), there are a lot of families who simply find themselves priced out of the experience at the moment.

3. Also related to the issue of price, cheap flights to Florida from the mid-Atlantic region are few and far between anymore. You'd think that one region wouldn't have much of an impact, but the mid-Atlantic and Northeast account for a huge percentage of non-Floridian WDW visitors. Flights from our area used to be available for $69 each way. Now you're hard pressed to find any desirable flight times for less than $120--we're approaching double the flight cost from our region over what it was even 5 years ago. It doesn't have a huge impact on us, but it certainly does on a family of 5 or 6 who are also excluded from the ability to book a cheap room at Pop or All Star due to their party size.

4. The value is decreasing. Every time we turn around, we hear about another beloved experience going away with either no concrete replacement announced or a mystery replacement announced. The maintenance of the parks is not as stellar as it used to be. I won't call it bad and to a certain degree, we the guests are responsible for not handling ourselves in a more thoughtful fashion, but cleanliness in the parks has decreased. The commitment to service no longer oozes from every cast member. It's still there, but it's less prominent. Anecdotally, I see a stronger current of poor CM interaction stories than I remember a decade ago and there appears to be less accountability for less than stellar service, indicating that management isn't all that worried about it.

5. Trip timing--I think the word is out that summer and holidays are crazy crowded and the Fall is not at all. I actually think the fact that the knowledge is now prominent and Disney has made their pricing more transparent by telling people with their 1-day ticket charts when the park is expected to be less crowded is driving more people to book in the fall and winter. Also Disney has made a specific effort to encourage "off-peak" travel by hosting athletic events and creating festivals to draw people in during the former "slow" times. If I was planning to take my kid this summer, but now my kid's soccer team is playing in a tournament at Disney in October, I'll just wait and go then.

6. South American tour groups are a large block of summer guests. The faltering economies of several South American countries and, to a lesser extent, the opportunity to see the Olympics in your own country may have played a role in this segment of guests being absent from the parks.

7. Bad press in the Orlando area. I do think that the Pulse shooting, the alligator, Zika, the two arrests in the past year of people trying to bring guns into MK have affected some people's decision about whether or not to vacation at WDW.

8. Brexit. WDW has actively courted European guests for years with packages that blow anything available to domestic travelers out of the water. Compounded with a favorable exchange rate, it seems that the average European family can afford Disney (excluding the difference in flight costs obviously) more easily than the typical American family can afford the same trip. Brexit has created uncertainty in Europe. Uncertainty, especially in the labor market, always causes a percentage of people affected to pull back the reigns on spending in the short term. Because vacations are something that most people plan far in advance on only cancel for extreme reasons, I suspect that WDW will see more impact from this over the next 6-18 months than it has seen so far.

I'll tell you this for nothing--the value resorts are still packing them in. I tried to swap our AoA for Pop over Labor Day weekend about two weeks ago and there wasn't a single room available at Pop. I look for the Fall to be immensely crowded. Between Fall events, the perception that Fall crowds are smaller, and the less expensive rooms & packages, I think people who have the ability to travel in not-summer are doing so.

alicemouse - I think you have got this about right, and your post is well written and interesting.

Alicemouse I agree with this and apart from adding personal choices and destination goals I can relate to 4 of your points exactly. Thank you for taking the time to put this in such a balanced and non judgemental fashion.

I think it all relates to closing Captain EO. It's been all downhill since then.

1. Park construction. I think many families in the know are delaying trips until some of the larger projects are completed because they have the perception that it's not a good use of their vacation budget to visit WDW while there's nearly constant construction in every park and half of the resorts. Maybe they are taking the opportunity to check out some other destinations. I know after October, we intend to be done for quite some time. We want to do an Alaskan cruise, Universal, and an Adventures by Disney trip before we go back to WDW again. The only thing that we might do is to do a long weekend and do a Christmas party and the Backstage Magic tour that doesn't require a park ticket.

2. Price increases. I still think that WDW is a great value versus many other destinations; HOWEVER, larger families have a much different pricing experience than we have. Things like airline tickets (or gas for the car), food cost, and attraction tickets play a larger role in which destination is the most affordable. For us, hotel cost is a much bigger driving factor because we have fewer "per person" items to buy in total. Disney hotels are somewhat expensive relative to other Lake Buena Vista area hotels even when you factor in Magical Express, no resort fees, free parking, etc., but they are very competitive with other places where we might like to travel--Boston, LA, San Francisco, etc. While Disney is still affordable for us as a couple (especially with DVC and AP factored into the cost equation), there are a lot of families who simply find themselves priced out of the experience at the moment.

3. Also related to the issue of price, cheap flights to Florida from the mid-Atlantic region are few and far between anymore. You'd think that one region wouldn't have much of an impact, but the mid-Atlantic and Northeast account for a huge percentage of non-Floridian WDW visitors. Flights from our area used to be available for $69 each way. Now you're hard pressed to find any desirable flight times for less than $120--we're approaching double the flight cost from our region over what it was even 5 years ago. It doesn't have a huge impact on us, but it certainly does on a family of 5 or 6 who are also excluded from the ability to book a cheap room at Pop or All Star due to their party size.

4. The value is decreasing. Every time we turn around, we hear about another beloved experience going away with either no concrete replacement announced or a mystery replacement announced. The maintenance of the parks is not as stellar as it used to be. I won't call it bad and to a certain degree, we the guests are responsible for not handling ourselves in a more thoughtful fashion, but cleanliness in the parks has decreased. The commitment to service no longer oozes from every cast member. It's still there, but it's less prominent. Anecdotally, I see a stronger current of poor CM interaction stories than I remember a decade ago and there appears to be less accountability for less than stellar service, indicating that management isn't all that worried about it.

5. Trip timing--I think the word is out that summer and holidays are crazy crowded and the Fall is not at all. I actually think the fact that the knowledge is now prominent and Disney has made their pricing more transparent by telling people with their 1-day ticket charts when the park is expected to be less crowded is driving more people to book in the fall and winter. Also Disney has made a specific effort to encourage "off-peak" travel by hosting athletic events and creating festivals to draw people in during the former "slow" times. If I was planning to take my kid this summer, but now my kid's soccer team is playing in a tournament at Disney in October, I'll just wait and go then.

6. South American tour groups are a large block of summer guests. The faltering economies of several South American countries and, to a lesser extent, the opportunity to see the Olympics in your own country may have played a role in this segment of guests being absent from the parks.

7. Bad press in the Orlando area. I do think that the Pulse shooting, the alligator, Zika, the two arrests in the past year of people trying to bring guns into MK have affected some people's decision about whether or not to vacation at WDW.

8. Brexit. WDW has actively courted European guests for years with packages that blow anything available to domestic travelers out of the water. Compounded with a favorable exchange rate, it seems that the average European family can afford Disney (excluding the difference in flight costs obviously) more easily than the typical American family can afford the same trip. Brexit has created uncertainty in Europe. Uncertainty, especially in the labor market, always causes a percentage of people affected to pull back the reigns on spending in the short term. Because vacations are something that most people plan far in advance on only cancel for extreme reasons, I suspect that WDW will see more impact from this over the next 6-18 months than it has seen so far.

I'll tell you this for nothing--the value resorts are still packing them in. I tried to swap our AoA for Pop over Labor Day weekend about two weeks ago and there wasn't a single room available at Pop. I look for the Fall to be immensely crowded. Between Fall events, the perception that Fall crowds are smaller, and the less expensive rooms & packages, I think people who have the ability to travel in not-summer are doing so.